Why the fall of Kunduz, Afghanistan, matters to the USA

Here is a quick review of why the fall of Kunduz, Afghanistan, this week has major consequences for the United States:

Is the fall of Kunduz a sign of Taliban strength?

The Taliban has been active in many remote parts of Afghanistan, overrunning police checkpoints and occasionally taking over small villages during the recent fighting season. Generally, U.S.-trained Afghan security forces are able to retake the areas fairly quickly. Kunduz is their first seizure of a major town in Afghanistan since U.S. forces ousted the radical Islamic group from power in 2001, and represents a blow to the government and its security forces. Kunduz is an important commercial center on major trade routes in northern Afghanistan.

Fall of Afghan city poses big test for U.S.

Is the fall of Kunduz linked to the U.S. withdrawal of most forces?

This is the first fighting season where Afghan forces are operating largely on their own, with little direct assistance from American forces, who are advising and training but not participating in ground combat. The Afghans can no longer rely on Americans for firepower and moving troops around the battlefield. Afghan forces, particularly police, have been taking heavy casualties, but until this week have been able to secure most of the major population centers in the country, a point of pride for the government.

With U.S. support, Afghanistan has built a large security force of more than 340,000 police and soldiers. Its performance so far has been mixed. Individual Afghans are generally good fighters, but the Afghan military has struggled when conducting large operations and coordinating among security forces, as has become apparent in the Kunduz counterattack. Generally, U.S. advisers remain at the higher headquarters level and do not accompany Afghan forces into battle.

What are the U.S. plans for supporting Afghan forces into the future?

The United States has fewer than 10,000 troops in Afghanistan and plans to withdraw most of its forces by the end of next year. But the United States and its NATO allies have discussed leaving a residual force after that. The United States and its allies have also committed to providing Afghanistan’s military financial support into the future.

Will Afghanistan go the way of Iraq?

Security declined dramatically after U.S. forces withdrew from Iraq in 2011. Last year, Islamic State militants seized large chunks of the country, including major cities. Russia and Iran wield considerable influence there. The United States attempted to leave a residual force behind in Iraq after 2011, but the government failed to provide the legal protections needed. By contrast, Afghanistan’s leaders, President Ashraf Ghani and Chief Executive Abdullah Abdullah, have supported the continued presence of U.S. and coalition troops in Afghanistan. It will be up to the Obama administration and its successor to decide what American presence remains after next year.

Can the Taliban take over Afghanistan?

The Taliban ruled the country with an iron fist from 1996 until the U.S.-led coalition invasion in 2001. They remain unpopular, and the capital, Kabul, and other large cities — such as Kandahar, Jalalabad and Mazari Sharif — remain in government control. The more immediate threat is violence spreading throughout the country, allowing the Taliban to gain strength in some areas and destabilizing the country.