Why predicting the impact of a no-deal Brexit is so hard
Estimates of the economic effects of no-deal on GDP are varied
APART FROM Economists for Free Trade (EFT), a pro-Brexit group, almost no wonks believe that leaving the EU without a deal would be good for the economy. The majority flinch when Boris Johnson, the new prime minister, promises that Britain will push off by October 31st “come what may”. Yet the question of just how bad a no-deal Brexit would be has many answers.
On July 18th the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR), the fiscal watchdog, warned that a no-deal exit would “push the economy into recession”. The next day Oxford Economics argued that “no-deal Brexit might be bad, but not OBR bad.” Capital Economics, another consultancy, wrote last year that in its central no-deal scenario “we don’t expect...a full-blown recession.” Estimates of the long-term effect on GDP are even more varied (see chart).
This article appeared in the Britain section of the print edition under the headline "How bad, exactly?"
Britain July 27th 2019
- Ditching the gags (and his enemies) Boris Johnson claims his prize
- Why predicting the impact of a no-deal Brexit is so hard
- Jo Swinson takes over the Liberal Democrats
- Britain’s Tories used to relish fiscal discipline. No longer
- From fly-tipping to sheep rustling, Britain’s cops crack down on rural crime
- Farming is tougher than ever. Young Britons can’t wait to get started
- The loneliness of Boris Johnson
From the July 27th 2019 edition
Discover stories from this section and more in the list of contents
Explore the editionMore from Britain
Could the Greens become a force in British politics?
The party hopes to win over voters to the left of Labour
Wayve achieves Britain’s largest-ever fundraising round
AI + self-driving cars = money
The Labour Party’s grand bargain with business
What would a new British government mean for boardrooms?